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Part 3: Party Performance and Unemployment
The economic indicator that seems to penetrate the American psyche more than
any other is unemployment. In our society, we are what we do. If you don't think
so, go to a party and meet several new people. Inevitably, in the getting to know
you process, the topic of occupation will come up, usually early in the
conversation. In that one title, what you do for a living explains a wealth of
information (real or imagined) that defines your being. People tend to make a
myriad of assumptions based on a job title including approximate income,
education and social standing.
When a person becomes unemployed, he or she not only loses his or her primary
source of income, but also a part of his or her identity. It is not surprising that
there is a high incidence rate of clinical unipolar depression amongst the
unemployed. Chronic unemployment is also associated with a host of social ills
such as divorce, crime and suicide.
Like many other economic indicators, it is not realistic to expect that the policies
and practice of the political parties that occupy the White House can completely
eliminate the problem of unemployment. At best reasonable people expect some
change on the margin. However, unemployment is frequently a hotly debated topic
in political campaigns. Like the medieval philosophers of old, our modern political
candidates, philosophers, pundits and surrogates love to debate this topic with
only the occasional reference to the available data. Generally when an
unemployment datum is quoted, it is done so without a reference point, which
puts it at high risk of misinterpretation.
Of the two parties, the Democrats claim to be the worker's party and tend to take
the lead on the debate on unemployment. They claim that they can reduce
unemployment more effectively than their competitors. If this is true and their
policies are truly effective, then it would stand to reason that unemployment
under Democratic presidents should be lower than under Republican presidents.
To put this clam to the test, I compared the annual average unemployment rate
from 1950 to 2006 by presidential party using data compiled by the US Department
of Labor and available on the internet via www.Fedstats.gov.
The analysis indicated that the Democratic Party's claim of lower unemployment
during their presidential administrations was confirmed. My results showed that
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