The results for the two year lag showed a non trivial reduction of the effect found in the current and one year lag measurements. The average for the Republicans increased from 2.832 percent to 3.017 and the Democratic average decreased to 4.074 percent from 4.434 percent. This narrowing of the gap was sufficient to put it in the range of too close to call (p=.095).

So what does this mean? Simply put, there is a "partisan effect" as Bartels (http://www.russellsage.org/publications/workingpapers/bartels/document) would call it if markets adjust quickly to policy changes. If markets take about a year or less to adjust to a new administration then the effect is strong and favoring Democratic Administrations. If markets take more than approximately a year and a half to adjust, then the partisan effect is questionable because by two years the data do not make the required minimums for statistical significance.

In no case, however, do these data confirm the original hypothesis that Republican administrations experience greater economic growth than Democratic administrations. Thus, the conventional wisdom that it is in the best interest of business to disproportionally support Republican candidates is not supported by these data.

Voter's Guide to Political Party Performance: Part 1   Part 2   Part 2a   Part 3   Part 4   Part 5   Part 6   Part 7

  Previous Page   Page 2 of  2   

This Week's Deal Sheet: Fairfax Corner: Vocelli Pizza: $3.50 Cash-Back Any Order $10.00 or More Dr. Mark Carl, DDS:$20.00 Cash-Back New Patient Exam and Cleaning ($203.00) See It: